Smoking Ban Impact Analysis


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    Hi JPK, IMPLAN can certainly add to this analysis but you would need to first come up with the direct impact. That is, you need to have some knowledge (or assumptions) about how these certain industries would react. Once you have that, you can plug it into IMPLAN to see the ripple effects of those industry reaction. For example, suppose one of the industries of interest is the restaurant industry. You would first need to know by how much the demand for restaurants would fall in reaction to the smoking ban. Then you could enter this decreased demand into IMPLAN to show all the ripple effects of that decrease in demand throughout the rest of the economy. Or suppose you want to see the effect on the cigarette industry. In this case, you would apply the value of lost sales to the producing sector (74) rather than the retail gas station or grocery store sectors. You would then want to apply margins (Event Options > Edit Event Properties > Margins > Yes), then set LPP = SAM Model Value (Event Options > Edit Event Properties > Local Purchase Percentage > Set to SAM Model Value). Finally, go to Edit > Event Properties > Margins > Edit and set the %Local for to the retail sectors to 1.00 and click "Save". This ensures that the cigarettes were purchased from local retailers, even if they weren't produced locally. Ideally, you would have a survey of some sort or results from other states/cities that have banned smoking to see how people's behavior will change in response to the ban (will they eat out less? will they purchase fewer cigarettes from retailers?). In the absence of this information, you could make a number of assumptions and run them as a range of possible scenarios, so long as you are up-front with your assumptions.
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