Activity level and event industry sales

Comments

20 comments

  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    Would an activity template work for this? I tried creating one, but IMPLAN did not accept it. If this is indeed a good way I should tackle my problem, can you take a look at the file and help me format it?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    DougO
    No, there are no tricks to get it to load as full output. You can create a spreadsheet to import an activity. Copy paste the outputs from the study area data report and format it for the import. Check the knowledge base for instruction and the Activity Spreadsheet.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    DougO
    To complete the template, say "No" to all the margins and set the LPP = "100%". You are in danger of double counting impacts. See this paper: http://implan.com/V4/index.php?option=com_googlesearch_cse&n=30&Itemid=&cx=013351894334548007152%3Ar2zqevzp6mg&cof=FORID%3A11&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=marginal&sa=Search&hl=en&siteurl=http%3A%2F%2Fimplan.com%2FV4%2Findex.php%3Foption%3Dcom_kunena%26func%3Dlatest%26Itemid%3D37 It refers to V2 buttons but the concepts are the same.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    DougO
    Here are instruction for a contribution analysis for version 3 software:http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=660%3A660&catid=253%3AKB33&Itemid=1
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    the first link led me not to a paper but a search, but I assumed it was the first search result you wanted me to look at, "marginal change vs industry shutdown"? So am I in danger of double counting because I have only manufacturing sectors but some of then produce the inputs to another sector I have included? Or did you think my percent reduction might be too big and have changes too large to be possible? ( my percent reductions are around 5%) How can I fix this? When Would I use multi-industry contribution? How are its results differnt from running an industry change in Implan?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    jenny
    I think the caution Doug was trying to express is that if you are expecting industry X, Y, and Z's output to decrease by 5% each and run this as a straightforward Industry Change Activity, you will end up with a greater than 5% loss to each of those industries due to indirect and induced effects on those same industries. Usually, this is fine but it depends on whether you want the total, final impact on the industries to be 5%. Where it becomes most important to conduct a contribution analysis (as opposed to a traditional impact analysis) is when you are modeling an industry's current production (no "new" impact) or the shut-down of an entire industry.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    What do you recommend I do to not end up with greater losses to each sector if i just want to output to decrease by only x%
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    jenny
    In that case, you need a multi-industry contribution analysis, instructions for which can be found here: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=article&id=660:660&Itemid=14
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    is there a way to import changing the coefficents to 1, for the 300 sectors im using, so only I have to set that up once?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    DougO
    The answer to your question is no. But I want to think through what you are trying to accomplish. If you are asking, what happens if the entire economy shrinks 5%, do you need to do impact analysis? It sounds like you simply need to calculate the 5%. If this is your case, and you do not allow double counting by editing the RSCs for every commodity, the resulting impact will be exactly that as there will be no industry interaction - an even 5% of the region. Is the issue is a supply constraint - eg, what happens if you lose 5% of your labor force? Does the supply constraint affect the demand for the good? If not, then the industry will try to produce up to the constraint and this is the case where we do not want to allow double counting. If you are comparing the contribution of each industry to the economy, then you do not want to prevent interactions between the industries, rather you would want to run each and every industry separately and not in one giant run. It would be easier to make the comparison through multiplying the output times the multipliers in the multiplier reports in a spreadsheet. What are you trying to show?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    So I have water shortages I am modeling. I have specific data for ag about irrigated acres and such, that allows me to estimate economic impact for each crop For industrial water, I am allocating the water shortage equally to every sector I consider "industry", and reducing output by a percentage to all sectors after using an elasticity model. Currently, I have an Ag Activity, that has individual/unique reductions for a couple of ag sectors. I also have an industrial activity, taking sectors ~20-318, and reducing them all by the same percentage (~3.5%) I mainly want total contribution to economy, and dont need industry comparison as much. However, I prefer the analysis showing the interactions between industries, and indirect/induced effect. But also want to avoid double counting.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    jenny
    Your best option is probably to aggregate the model so that there is just one manufacturing sector and one agricultural sector - that way you only have to make the adjustments to 2 sectors. You can leave the remaining sectors unaggregated. Click here for aggregation instructions: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=article&id=556:556&Itemid=14 You may also find this forum discussion helpful: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=84&id=13244&Itemid=35#13248
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    What are the benefits to aggregating a model, or how does my analysis benefit from it? Also why is it better to aggregate the ag model when I have the specific reductions for the 3-5 ag sectors that are effected?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    DougO
    Normally, we tell users not to aggregate a model (multipliers), rather aggregate impact results. This is because those industries interacting with the aggregated industries would impact the average aggregated industry rather than the specific industry it wishes to deal with. In this case, since we are not allowing industries to interact with the aggregation (setting RSC to 0) it does not cause a problem. Impacting the aggregated industry is not a problem either since you are applying an even percentage across all the industries in the aggregation - ie, you want an average anyway. The advantage is that you are only dealing with two aggregated sectors in editing the trade flows to avoid double counting and applying impacts. The aggregation scheme can be saved to a library and imported into every county in which you wish to derive an impact.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    Thanks for the explanation However, I am under the impression I only want to aggregate my "industrial sectors" because they have are having the even percentage loss across all sectors. While I should leave ag unaggregated because I have unique percentage losses for each crop sector.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    jenny
    In that case, yes - you will want to leave the agricultural sectors unaggregated.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    Do I want to set RSC to 0 for just the aggregated industry sector? Also when I aggregate the model, it says I have to reset up the model. So i go to construct-->social accs-->all steps. Then after that, the set up activities box is greyed out and I cant use it.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    jenny
    You need to set RSC = 0 for the aggregated manufactuing sector and all of the agricultural sectors that you are analyzing. When reconstructing, select Options > Construct > Multipliers.
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    Rwhelan
    Thanks quick off-topic question, but in the analysis results do the total impacts include the tax impacts? or are the tax impacts and total impact separate?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    DougO
    Output = Value Added + Intermediate Inputs Value Added = Employee Compensation + Proprietor income + Indirect Business Taxes + Other property income The taxes are included in the various componenets of value added as well as, come out of household income which receives value added as a transfer. So, yes - the output impacts include the tax impacts. The output impacts are the grand total impacts - they include all the individual parts of the impacts, so no other data should be added to the output impacts (with the exception of employment but that cannot be summed with dollars).
    0
    Comment actions Permalink

Please sign in to leave a comment.