Changed Induced Effects

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14 comments

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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Russell, Can you provide us a little more information so we will be able to troubleshoot this a little more clearly? Can you tell us what region you are working with? If you are using the same year's data or two different years, and what is the primary Sector you are impacting? Also did you make any modifications to the Event? We don't believe this is related to a software update. Thanks!
  • Avatar
    OCImplan
    I am working with the 2010 State level data and I am using the same year's data and the primary sector I am looking at is 409. I did not make any modifications or changes, I ran it exactly the same way I did last year, and got the exact same direct and indirect effects and different induced.
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Russell, The puzzlement seems to lie with the fact that Indirect didn't change, only the Induced. Just to check are you looking at both the Events in the same Dollar Year for View and do they both have the same Event Year selected in the Activity, the default Event Year will update with the computer's calendar, so if you haven't modified the Event Year fields the same Activity would be occurring in different years and thus yield different results.
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    OCImplan
    The Event Year is in 2010 as is the View year.
  • Avatar
    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Russell, We can't make it add up on this end, so can you email us your Model at support@implan.com? You will need to zip it up to get it through. Please let us know if you have any trouble with this.
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi, Thanks for sending those in. The difference between the Models lies in how you selected the Multiplier build with Institutions. In the year with the larger Induced impacts you also selected Enterprises to be endogenized into the Multiplier, in the Model with the smaller Induced effects you used the default Multiplier build, which does not include Enterprises.
  • Avatar
    OCImplan
    I looked at both models side by side and went to "User Preferences" to look at the multipliers and it appears to me that both models have the same institutions checked as internalized, so I was wondering if you could walk me through your explanation a bit more to make sure I am understanding it correctly. Thanks.
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    IMPLAN Support
    Unfortunately the User Preferences shows how you currently have the defaults set, not how the open model was set up. We went into the Access database behind the Models to determine this. The simplest way to test this, would be to rebuild your Model now selecting enterprises, import your activities over from the other model through the Activity Options> Import> From Another Model. Direct back to the 1.18.13 model and select the activities from the other Model to import. When you rerun in the Model with Enterprises selected (we would suggest putting this into the Model name for reference) you should get identical results.
  • Avatar
    OCImplan
    Thank you for your advice. After selecting to internalize the enterprise multiplier User Preferences>Multiplier tab, the impact results (direct, indirect, and induced) now match the results from running the model last year, which is good. You pointed out that the default multiplier build does not internalize the enterprise multiplier. However, last year when we ran the model we did not customize the model by selecting to internalize the enterprise multiplier. Was there a software change or update that switched the default setting? In other words, did internalizing the enterprise multiplier used to be a part of the default setting? Does unselecting (or excluding) the enterprise multiplier eliminate the profits from the operations at the direct level and the supplier (indirect) level from the multiplier effect? (NOTE: we have zeroed out Other Property Income and Proprietary Income at the regional data modification level) Is there anything else that would cause a difference in the impact results after selecting to internalize the enterprise multiplier? Please advise. Thank you.
  • Avatar
    IMPLAN Support
    Hi, Enterprises were never part of the default build. The default build has always just been Households (for both Version 2.0 and Version 3), so we aren't certain how that got selected, but it wasn't by the software or a previous default. As regards Enterprises themselves, they were included to allow state and local government to have more income to re-spend from corporate taxes. The Type SAM Multipliers with Enterprises (Corporations) Internalized has no real spending pattern for retained earning other than distribution to owners, government and savings. As such it is useful for internalizing those institutions and capital spending but not on its own. At the local level owners are quite likely to live outside of the region. For more information on when it is appropriate to internalize institutions other than households, we have this document: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://implan.com/v4/index.php%3Foption%3Dcom_docman%26task%3Ddoc_download%26gid%3D137%26Itemid%3D7&sa=U&ei=ShEIUaeeNcmCqgHL6YCYDg&ved=0CAcQFjAA&client=internal-uds-cse&usg=AFQjCNHMD5WJKYQ6KMP4NMqDHrS3OJpBEg While it sounds like you have zeroed out Other Property Type Income and Proprietor Income for your starting industries, the enterprises are re-spending dollars collected from other industries reporting Other Property Type Income.
  • Avatar
    OCImplan
    Thank you for your help. I am now wondering if there is a way for me to look at past models that have been run, ex post, to see what multipliers were internalized. In an earlier post you stated that you went into the Access database, but is there a way for me to check this? Also, I would like some clarification on a quote from the document included in the previous post regarding Type SAM Multipliers. There is a statement about the Enterprises multiplier saying,"it is useful for internalizing those institutions and capital spending but not on its own." Is this suggesting that it only makes sense to either internalize both Enterprises and Capital or neither of them? Please advise. Thank you.
  • Avatar
    IMPLAN Support
    Unfortunately, there is currently no way for to view this, however, we will have a utility for this out in the next couple of updates. We apologize that we dot have it now. In regards to your second question, what this is actually suggesting is that it was never intended for Enterprises or Capital to be internalized without internalizing at least one government institution. However, there are many caveats to internalizing governments as discussed in the link and this is typically not recommended.
  • Avatar
    OCImplan
    I inquired 2 weeks ago about being able to see look at the multipliers used in a model, ex post. In your response you said that you will have a utility for this in the next couple of updates. I was wondering if that update has been made now, and if not, do you have any idea when it will be released? Thanks
  • Avatar
    IMPLAN Support
    Hello, We have not released this utility yet, but it will be included in the next update. The next update applies a significant number of changes/updates to the software, and so we don't have an exact release date, as we are currently involved in software testing. We are hoping to have it available by the end of the month, but we cannot say for certain. In the new update, you will see this information in the Model Overview screen.

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