Several states have analyzed the economy-wide impact of an avian flu outbreak in the poultry industry. In one study I saw the impact modeled as a reduction of output at the poultry farm level plus the reduction in output at the meat processing level. That is, two separate impact scenarios were run and then added. However, if in a state the farm level production of poultry is linked to the meat processing level of those birds, then wouldn't the model of a reduction in birds at the farm level INCLUDE the impacts at the processing level - thus meaning the use of two separate impact models (farm level and processing level)- when added - would overstate the impact? Thanks for helping!
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