2011 Projections

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7 comments

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    jenny
    When viewing your impact results, you have the option of inflating the results using the Dollar Year for View drop-down menu in the upper left of the Scenario Results screen. As for the source of our inflators/deflators: The BEA has historical GDP and Output deflators which we use for past to current Output Deflators. For projections into the future, we use the annual rate of change from the BLS employment growth model. These are most closely related to the producer price index. The Output Deflators are specific to the industry/commodity while the same GDP deflator applies to all of the value-added components.
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    soniawatts
    Basically, I have to just change the Dollar Year to view historical trend or future projections of results (from the current data year of 2010), which have already been programmed in IMPLAN. Thanks, Jenny.
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    DougO
    Not sure what you are asking. If you are looking at a one time impact occuring in 2010 and want to much how much of the impact leaks into 2011 and future years, then there is a problem in that multipliers are an "all at once" result. Most analysts assume that the events work there way through the economy within a year. Since multipliers are equivalent to the time series of all rounds of purchases by the region's economic entities we could arbitrarily assume the the first three rounds (about 90% of the total impact) occur within the first year, the next 3 rounds (another 8%) occurs the second year and the the remaining rounds (2%) the third year. IMPLAN impact results show the entire impact associated with the events specified by the user. If the events occur annually (eg, the operation of a manufacturing plant) then the impacts occur annually for as long as the events occur. If the event is expected to occur in the future, the you only need to specify the year the event occurs so the software can apply deflators before applying the event to the multiplier. You can then reflate the results to the desired year.
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    soniawatts
    Doug, Thanks for explaining the leakage rates. Here is what I am trying to do. 2010 - This is the event year to determine the ecomomic impact of a small airport in one county of NH. I have uploaded the 2010 county data and gone through all the inputs etc. Once I run it, I get my results of 2010. I am fine with the modeling methodology and the 10% leakage. 2011 - Assuming constant operations at this airport and keeping the same inputs as 2010, I want to project the results for 2011. Jenny had mentioned changing the Dollar Year to view the projected results for 2011 including the already programmed inflators/deflators. Bijan
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    DougO
    Are you assuming the same size operation and budget for 2011 as 2010? If so the employment and income impacts will be the same in constant 2010 dollars. However, if you view the results in 2011, 2012, 2013 dollars, then the dollars will slowly increase. If you have different 2011 employment, sales/revenue then you will need plug the 2011 values into the event.
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    soniawatts
    Yes, I am assuming the same level of operations and budget in 2011 as in 2010. Yes, I am just looking for the Dollar increases while employment remains the same. Thanks again. Bijan
  • Avatar
    DougO
    Yes, you should be able to simply view the results of your 2010 analysis in 2011 dollars.

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