Impact of Convention Center Expansion

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    jenny
    For construction, you will want to use sector 34. The minimum data you would need would be one of the following: Employment, budget, total value of the addition, or payroll. The software will fill in any missing fields based on the average relationships (e.g., output per worker, income per worker) for that sector in your region. You will want to incorporate all the data you have available to you, so you may end up customizing the Event, which is fine. If you have some detail as to the amount spent on specific items, you could do analysis-by-parts, for which there is a tutorial (http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=108&Itemid=7) and numerous forum discussions. One thing to note is that Output (i.e., Industry Sales) is not the same as budget (see this forum discussion for more on this: http://implan.com/V4/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=84&id=10045&limit=6&limitstart=6&Itemid=35#10056). So the value you need to enter into "Industry Sales" of the construction sector is the value of the completed structure net of land cost, any major real estate/legal fees, and preparation (architectural, environmental, etc.) This would include payments to labor, profits, and taxes. Construction is a one-time impact. As for the on-going operation of the expansion, you essentially have a tourism study. The easy part is the employment involved in the operation of the training center (sector 360 includes rental/lease of convention centers and sector 389 includes promotion and managment of events at convention centers). The harder part is the tourism of those who visit the convention center (expenditures on hotels, restaurants, retail, air fare, car rental, etc.) There is no "Tourism" industry as such, so you will need to identify the goods and services purchased by visitors. There are a number of studies for convention centers and other types of business traveling events. I suggest using Google to see if you can find a study that has a per person spending for business travel that you can borrow.
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    tuuyend
    If I have forecast the difference in the number of attendance, where do I input the historical and forecast figures in the model? When I put in data inputs, is this just one number or can it be a set of numbers? What is the difference between Activity and Event and is there an updated Tutorial for Implan V3? Thanks!
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    jenny
    You do not need to run two scenarios (e.g., a before and an after); rather, to see the impact of the increased attendance, you just need to model that increase. However, you will need to somehow convert that change in attendance to dollars or jobs. This convention center study is somewhat dated but can serve as a good guide. It even contains some spending patterns you could use in the absence of any other data: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=126&Itemid=7 You need to have at least one of the following: Employment, expenditure amount, or payroll. IMPLAN will fill in any missing values for you. If you have your own value for all of these, you can (and should) overwrite the values that IMPLAN filled in for you. An Activity is a container for Events. For example, you might have an Activity called "Visitor Spending" and this Activity would contain an Event for each spending category (e.g., hotels, car rental, restaurants). Some Activities will only have one Event - this is fine. Similarly, a Scenario is a container for Activities. So you might have a Scenario called "Convention Center" containing the "Visitor Spending" Activity and a "Convention Center Operations" Activity. You might then have another Scenario for "Convention Center Construction" - this would be a separate Scenario since it is a one-time occurence and you wouldn't want it lumped in with the annually recurring impacts in your other Scenario. This link will take you to the V3 reference manual and some exercises for learning V3: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=categories&cid=200&Itemid=10 If you don't already have the software, you can practice with the demo software: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=173&Itemid=7
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    tuuyend
    I really appreciate the assistance thus far. It's starting to make sense. I do have several follow up questions: - If I can forecast the Net Difference between 2 scenarios for Attendee Spending, would I use the stabilized year's Net Difference to input in a new Event, but which sector would it be? Would I need to break this down by separate sectors (ie. Lodging, Retail, etc) or can I put a total? - When you say, that I can overwrite values if I have numbers for these, do you mean those are projections or historical values and where do I input this? - Where can I read about what is included in the Total Impact Summary categories with "Employment," "Labor Income," and "Value Added"? - For one-time scenario (like Convention Center Construction), if I separate this as a separate scenario...it will only be applied once? Can I then see the total impact for both scenarios (the change in attendee spending and construction spending)? Thank you!
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    jenny
    As mentioned previously, there is no "Tourism" sector, so these would need to be separate Events. The study I linked you to has a spending pattern for conference attendees that you could use if you have no other information - you would just want to be sure to state so in your methodology section. Appendix 3 of the same report contains a spending pattern for operations of the convention center. This would also be a series of separate Events. Using this approach for the operations of the convention center is necessary as there is no "Convention Center" sector either. For each of these Events, you will want to set LPP to SAM Model Value (Event Options > Change All > Local Purchase Percentage > Set to SAM Model Value). As discussed in the paper, your impact results from this part of the analysis will not include the workers at the convention center - this will have to be run separately. This approach (a spending pattern + labor income) is known as analysis-by-parts, for which there is a tutorial: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=108&Itemid=7 The numbers IMPLAN fills in for you are based on the current (year of the dataset) picture of the economy. You would enter these numbers in the Setup Activites screen. I highly recommend you go through the Quick Start Guides and some of the tutorials to get familiar with the software before attempting such an involved analysis as yours. Here is a link to a discussion of Output and its components: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=84&id=11450&Itemid=35#11451 Running an impact does not change the underlying study area data (i.e., it does not modify your model). You can run multiple scenarios on a single model and see each scenario's results. You do not want to sum the construction, operations, and visitor spending scenarios since the construction impact is just a one-time impact.
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    tuuyend
    I read through the study on The Impact of the Minneapolis Convention Center. I understand that in Appendix 3 of that report, a series of sectors were defined for the operations of a Convention Center, since it does not exist in IMPLAN. I've gone through the Tutorials and Quick Start Guides, but I could not find instructions on how to add these inputs in the system. These inputs should be changes in expenses right? For the impact analysis on the change in Attendee's spending, do I need to customize any numbers for the "Convention" sector? I don't understand when ABP Method is needed. Are there clearer instructions than the ones found in the Tutorial (since this was based on an older model)? I see that I can change Event Year within an Event. If I'm using a forecast demand change in the future (since I'm comparing the No Expansion and Expansion Scenarios), can I just input my value in the future year's dollar and change the Event Year to match that?
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    jenny
    For the convention center operations, click New Activity, give the activity a name, then click Save. Click New Event, select the Industry for the expenditure category, set the Event Year to whichever future year the forecasted expenditure amount represents, then enter the expenditure amount in the "Industry Sales" field. Repeat for each expenditure. Likewise for the visitor spending Activity. You do not need to customize any of these Events - this is just an option that is available to you if you have the detailed data. Note: whenever you enter a value in one of the retail sectors, a message box will appear asking whether the value you are entering is the sales value or the margin value - you will want to leave the default selection (sales); the software will then apply margins for you. Remember to set LPP to SAM Model Value. ABP is needed whenever you are using an industry spending pattern (rather than a simple Industry Change Activity) to model the operations of an industry. The option of a simple Industry Change Activity is not available to you in the case of the convention center operations because there is no "convention center" industry. All it means is that you need to run a separate Labor Income Change activity for the payroll of the convention center employees and then add all direct effects to the final results (this is because the spending pattern represents the first round of the indirect effects). The basic ideas outlined in the tutorial remain the same even though they refer to V2. If you do a keyword search of "analysis by parts" in the forum you will find many discussions on this topic. ABP is also used if you want to customize the spending pattern for an industry. If you do not have specific line item expenditure data for the construction part of the analysis (i.e., you don't need to customize the spending pattern), then: a. You can use a simple Industry Change Activity for that part of the analysis, with no ABP required and b. You can leave LPP = 100% since by definition, construction activity takes place locally. No ABP is required for the visitor spending, as those Events are the direct impact (i.e., they are final demand changes).
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    tuuyend
    Thank you on the clarification. So if I'd like to create three scenarios: 1. change in attendees' spending, 2. construction of convention center, 3. Convention Center operations, then I'd need to: - For Scenario 1: Create an activity (Industry Change) and multiple events for the changes in demand for each segment of attendee' spending (ie. lodging, food and beverage, etc.) - For Scenario 2: Create an activity (Industry Change) and a new event for Sector 34 and input the expansion budget into Industry Sales. - For Scenario 3: I think you were describing there are two parts to this. I believe you said to run two scenarios, one for operations and one for convention center employees and sum those two up (but just add direct effect of payroll)? Can you provide more details on the steps for this scenario? I understand that Scenario 2 only occurred once, so I can't add it to the remaining two, but can I add Scenario 1's output to Scenario 2's output? I read that a total employment output of 20 does not translate to 20 additional workers...can you clarify this?
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    jenny
    The way you've outlined it looks fine. With regards to Scenario 3, it will have two Activities: 1. A Labor Income Change with Level = convention center payroll 2. A spending pattern for convention center non-payroll budgets If you run these two Activities together in onc Scenario, you won't need to sum them together in Excel. you would just need to add the direct effects (the revenues, employment, payroll) of the convention center to the results to complete this Scenario. Yes, you can sum the results of Scenario 1 and Scenario 3. I'm not sure where you read that or exactly what they were referring to, but it may be related to the fact that employment figures reported by IMPLAN are annual average job counts, not full-time equivalents (FTE).
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    tuuyend
    Where can I get a list of definitions for each sector? For example, which sector would I categorize Entertainment & Sightseeing or just general Retail? Or how to differentiate between Local Transportation vs. Car Rental?
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    jenny
    The Sector Search feature of IMPLAN allows you to find IMPLAN sectors and NAICS codes based on key words. You can access this feature by opening a model then clicking Help > Sector Search. This webpage shows the NAICS codes in each IMPLAN sector: https://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=633%3A633&catid=241%3AKB23&Itemid=1 This webpage allows you to search for NAICS codes using key words: http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/
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    tuuyend
    I was looking to read the definitions on what a sector included. Also, the IMPLAN link above only brought me to the main page and the NAICS codes on the census.gov site do not seem to correspond with IMPLAN.
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    jenny
    The link works - you just need to scroll down. The sector search feature will give you the descriptions you seek.
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    tuuyend
    Thank you. Final question, is the multiplier taking into account one year or does it analyze a series of years? For example, I have change in attendance spending on an annual basis for a period of years. Can I input those as separate scenarios and sum them up taking into account time value of money? Can I do the same with construction impact?
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    DougO
    The impacts reported are the economy needed to support the direct effects. The software uses annual output per worker to calculate the employment impact - so the reported employment are annual average. If the direct effect only occurs once - then the supporting economy is required only once. If the direct effects occur annually then the impacts occur annually for as long as the direct effects occur. So yes, you can look at the cumulative impacts of a multi-year construction project by deflating income and output values to a common year and summing the employment (ie, man-years labor).
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