Question Concerning Implan Modeling of Sector 409

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    DougO
    If the establishment is not subject to employment security laws, their information is not included in BLS Qcew data and is; therefore, missing in the IMPLAN data. However, the process of creating multipliers involves turning the production function into coefficients before calculation of multipliers. The multipliers tell us the activity required satisfy a demand on an industry - no matter how small or large the industry was originally. The size of existing industries do have an effect on multipliers; however, as the supply of what the industry produces is available to other local demands which can displace imports and increase the size of the multipliers. Gaming is not an important input to industry, so missing that production will have a minimal effect on the indirect effect. It is part of the household spending pattern, so that lack of supply will reduce the induced effect. In your analysis, the most important consideration is: How do gambling operations differ from the general "other recreation and gambling" sector - especially one that includes no gambling? Are the profits to output relationships greater? Is it better pay or greater output per worker? If you can get any firm specific industry data (output, employee compensation, employment, profit) then I suggest you edit the region data for the industry to reflect that data. There are many casino studies that have been done and should be able to help with the industry. Note, for gambling, output is defined as gross gambling net of returns to the gambler. It is from this "margin" that all casino expenses are paid and profit is created. Note, if you are goingo to do a scenario that asks, "What is the total contribution of casino gambling to the AZ economy?" or the equivalent "What if we shut down casino gambling, how would that affect the AZ economy? then you are specifying the entire gambling activity as the direct effect - any casino indirect and induced effects would double count the specified direct effect. See this article on doing this kind of total contribution analysis and avoiding double counting: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=660%3A660&catid=253%3AKB33&Itemid=1
  • Avatar
    margothollick
    Are the production relationships derived from the QCEW data derived individually for each state, or are they national relationships applied to each state. I.e. are the relationships between casinos and say their impact on losing and restaurants derived by using data for each state so that the production function between inputs and the casino industry is different for each state? Thanks so much Margot
  • Avatar
    jenny
    Hi Margot, This forum discussion should answer your question: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=80&id=12036&Itemid=35#12092
  • Avatar
    margothollick
    I had a question about implan and calculating state income tax liabilities. I am modelling the effect of increasing employment in sector 409 in Arizona. This increase in employment obviously increases income indirectly and directly. My question is whether implan can model the impact this increase in personal income has on Arizona state personal income taxes. Obviously, calculating Arizona income state tax liabilities requires you to estimate the composition of tax units (single filers, head of household, married joint), what exemptions, deductions and credits the taxpayers claim, and the level of income (since the state income tax is a graduated income tax). If Implan can model state personal income tax liabilities I would really appreciate figuring out how that works, because I didn't see that in the model i had.
  • Avatar
    jenny
    IMPLAN will indeed give you an estimate of the Personal Income Taxes (both at the State/Local level and the Federal level) associated with any impact. These are based on tax payments made during the same year as your model. The breakdown of total Personal Taxes by type (income, property, etc.) are an average of all household income groups. More information can be found in this document: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://implan.com/v4/index.php%3Foption%3Dcom_docman%26task%3Ddoc_download%26gid%3D222%26Itemid%3D60&sa=U&ei=gz8pUO3dJ5DyqwHEzYDoCQ&ved=0CAUQFjAA&client=internal-uds-cse&usg=AFQjCNGxbUSCTi6bULDk3mKeSdp6CF1Leg
  • Avatar
    margothollick
    When you write "The breakdown of total Personal Taxes by type (income, property, etc.) are an average of all household income groups" do you mean that is the total personal income taxes paid are weighted by different household sizes and filing statuses?
  • Avatar
    DougO
    There are nine income class groups of household spending pattern. There is an average tax and savings rate associated with each of the nine. The breakdown of household taxes in the tax impact report will be the weighted average (for the region) of those nine classes.

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