Modelling Public Sector Aquarium

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    DougO
    Normally, we suggest running a public sector activity through a private proxy sector as most of the government sectors are a huge hodge podge of activities. Aquariums are lumped into a minor hodge podge of private activity as well (Museums, historical sites, zoos and parks), so having the expenditures is a great benefit and I agree that modeling those as you suggest is best. (This is a an analysis-by-parts which we happen to have a case study to help those unfamiliar with the process: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=categories&layout=blog&cid=200&Itemid=14 ) Resident spending at the aquarium is indeed problematical. I suggest running and reporting the impacts of both as separate analyses and let the politicians haggle over it. A net anlaysis - running the resident spending through the aquarium (positive "contribution analysis") as well as running the same resident spending through likely options (negative impact) would give you the true "impact analysis", but it can be extremely hard to determine the likely alternatives. Note though, that import substitution by residents count just as much as non-resident spending for the city. Eg, if they spend money at the aquarium instead of going to Norfolk to see the Tidewater Tides play a game.
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    pharris
    Hi Doug, thank you sooo much for quick and thorough response....yes, we are aware (but thanks for noting in case we weren’t) of the retained expenditure issue (if the City's aquarium didn’t exist, additional resident spending could be leaked from our economy); we also do not assume that 100% of the spending from non residential spending at the museum is solely attributable to the Museum (some would have been spent elsewhere in our City at a different venue or different time--"time switchers"). Of course, determining this (our aquarium has not surveyed customers specifically to ask "but for" this aquarium, they would not have visited Va Beach) is difficult. But in a net analysis, we can at least demonstrate that we have attempted to account for these influences and document our assumptions. Again, thank you sooo much. Sincerely Paul
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    pharris
    Hi Doug or Anyone Else who is Available, sorry to be such an idiot on this...so I am trying to determine the impact of a public aquarium (this analysis has been delayed since my initial inquiry in July). I proposed and you agreed that I could determine the impact based on their expenditures. You recommended running an "Analysis by Parts" approach and provided an example via a Case Study (thanks!). But the "Case Study (and remember my aforementioned comment about being an idiot) seems to suggest that I enter the Industry Sector (a public aquarium, which you agreed is not well represented in the IMPLAN model for our area). So I am confused and was wondering whether I can enter each expenditure by as an "Industry" instead? Thanks sooo much! and hope you are doing well.
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Paul, Absolutely, the case study is broken down into three parts. It sounds like you are starting from a customized budget so the one that will be most applicable to you is the TASK C portion of the link. We have reattached the link here: http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=categories&layout=blog&cid=264:casestudies&Itemid=14 Please let us know if you run into any additional questions.
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    pharris
    Hi, thanks for quick reply...I really sorry that I am so slow...but I am still unclear...can I enter each expenditure category as an "Industry"?
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Paul, No problem. We are glad to help. The Activity Type we would recommend choosing will be an Industry Spending Pattern. You will be entering coefficients with this Activity Type, instead of dollar amounts. This method is generally easier since the whole dollar value of each Event Sector isn't used, fixing the budget to a set amount. By taking the total budget expenditures (as opposed to total output value) and dividing each Sectors value by the budget total, you should create a spending pattern where the coefficients Sum of Event Values is equal to 1.00 and the Activity Level is set to the entire budget value. If you use this method, you will be using commodity codes. If you don't want/won't need to use this spending pattern again with a different budget, you can just create a list of Events in a Industry Change activity with their associated dollar values. If you use this method you will be using Industry Codes. The important thing, either way, is to ensure that the LPP is set to Sam Model Value via Event Options> Edit Event Properties>Set Local Purchase Percentage> [url=https://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=article&id=567:567&Itemid=71#lpp]SAM Model Value[/url]. This will allow you to examine your budgetary portion. You will still want an Labor Income Change to examine the impacts of the employee spending. Please let us know if you have any additional questions.
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    pharris
    Hi Jenny? or Francis? thanks soooo much for additional help and patience...I clearly need more training, which I will pursue via the DVD, 3day training, or $350 an hour...I have been using IMPLAN since 1994, but only recently coverted to V3; in V2, I ran everything through "Industry", and this is a bit "Greek" to me; where I am lost is: "You will be entering coefficients with this Activity Type, instead of dollar amounts". Where do I obtain the coefficients; I only have the Industry Sector # and dollar amounts? Although not perferred, can I run an "Industry" with amounts for each sector? I am so sorry that I am helpless and sincerely appreciate all your help.
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    IMPLAN Support
    Don't worry, it's not a problem. It sounds like you decided to do an Industry Change Activity type. Out of curiosity, when you create a new industry, do you have any other options? If not, you can activate additional options using the File> User Preferences menu, selecting the "Analysis" tab and the Advanced User check box. If you don't need to look at several different budget amounts the Industry Change Activity type is completely acceptable, and you don't have to worry about the coefficients, you would only have coefficients if you used the Industry Spending Pattern Activity Type. Just remember to set your LPP and when you read results, that your "Direct" Results are actually your first round budgetary purchases, just like in V2.
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    pharris
    Thanks again soooo much...my selection of an Industry approach is due to familiarity; I am off-site and dont have access to IMPLAN, but will check and let you know whether I have any options besides "Industry"...thanks again sooo much
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    pharris
    Hi, yes, I only the "Industry" option displayed, but I have checked the "Advance" as you suggested--thanks :) I also changed the LPP from 100% to "SAM"---thanks :) :) Hey, if I can sneak in one more...in V2, when I entered a "Retail" sector, I had to enter the margin amoung (approximately 1/3)...do I have to enter the margin (rather than the full sales figure) in V3 (or does V3 compute)? thanks so much :) :) :)
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    IMPLAN Support
    Paul, If you are using the actual Retail Sectors (320-331) you can enter the full sales value (purchaser costs), and the Model will estimate the Margin for you based on your response to a popup asking if you want to apply the Gross Retail Sales or the Gross Retail Margin. Gross Retail Sales will automatically take the appropriate funds by removing all but the retailer's Margin. You can see this by clicking the Preview button in the upper right-hand corner of the Activity page. If you happen to have a known Margin value you can edit margins in Version 3.0 as well Event Options> Edit Event Properties>Margins> Edit; . If you enter a value other than 'Industry Sales' you won't see the pop-up screen because IMPLAN will estimate the 'Industry Sales' value based on the appropriate retailer's Margin (so it will already be reduced to a producer price).
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    pharris
    Hi, thanks so much...I found it
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    pharris
    Hi Again, I finally completed my first analysis in V3; however, the results seem odd to me, at least compared to V2, and I respectfully seek your counsel. So using "Industry" in V2, each amount of change in Final Demand I entered under each Industry category appeared as "Direct" on the output report. Scott/Doug explained to me that "Direct" in V2 really represented the change in Final Demand and the true first round of Direct as well as all the subsequent rounds of Indirect were reflected under the "Indirect" category. Now in V3, I entered approximately $4.5m in changes in Final Demand spread among 15 industries, but the "Direct" amounts listed in the Ouput below only total $2.4m. Impact Summary VB IMPLAN Model 1.impdb Copyright 2013 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. ImpactType Employment LaborIncome TotalValueAdded Output Direct Effect 21.4 871,232.0 1,575,921.8 2,421,578.9 Indirect Effect 4.6 185,627.9 361,325.1 600,376.4 Induced Effect 43.7 1,694,687.1 3,380,208.3 5,213,024.8 Total Effect 69.6 2,751,547.1 5,317,455.3 8,234,980.1
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    pharris
    Hi, somehow I goofed (no surprise), and I failed to submit the folloiwng posting yesterday. So I successfully completed my first V3 analysis; however, my results are inconsistent with what I am accustom to viewing in V2, and I respectfully seek your counsel. So using "Industry" in V2, I would enter the change in Final Demand under each Industry category. These would then appear as "Direct" (adjusted for inflation between model year of IMPLAN and current year) on the output report. Scott/Doug explained to me that, in V2, "Direct" really represented the change in Final Demand, and the true first round of Direct as well as all the subsequent rounds of Indirect were reflected under the "Indirect" category. Now in V3, I entered approximately $4.5m in changes in Final Demand spread among 15 industries, but the "Direct" amounts listed in the Ouput below only total $2.4m. So of the difference is due to margin industries (after accounting for margin industries, the $4.5m is less--probably about $3.6m in my case). I am thinking LPP may represent some of the difference (is LPP netted from "Direct" in V3 while it was netted in "Indirect" in V2)? Basically, does "Direct" no longer represent the "Change in Final Demand"; it truly represents true "Direct" in I/O methodology? I also enetered $6.5m in payroll (wages and benefits---should I only have entered a pure wage figure?). So I should expect a large "Induced" effect, which I received; does this seem realistic? thanks sooooo much :):):) Impact Summary VB IMPLAN Model 1.impdb Copyright 2013 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. ImpactType Employment LaborIncome Total ValueAdded Output Direct Effect 21.4 871,232.0 1,575,921.8 2,421,578.9 Indirect Effect 4.6 185,627.9 361,325.1 600,376.4 Induced Effect 43.7 1,694,687.1 3,380,208.3 5,213,024.8 Total Effect 69.6 2,751,547.1 5,317,455.3 8,234,980.1
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    pharris
    Hi, somehow I goofed (no surprise), and I failed to submit the folloiwng posting yesterday. So I successfully completed my first V3 analysis; however, my results are inconsistent with what I am accustom to viewing in V2, and I respectfully seek your counsel. So using "Industry" in V2, I would enter the change in Final Demand under each Industry category. These would then appear as "Direct" (adjusted for inflation between model year of IMPLAN and current year) on the output report. Scott/Doug explained to me that, in V2, "Direct" really represented the change in Final Demand, and the true first round of Direct as well as all the subsequent rounds of Indirect were reflected under the "Indirect" category. Now in V3, I entered approximately $4.5m in changes in Final Demand spread among 15 industries, but the "Direct" amounts listed in the Ouput below only total $2.4m. So of the difference is due to margin industries (after accounting for margin industries, the $4.5m is less--probably about $3.6m in my case). I am thinking LPP may represent some of the difference (is LPP netted from "Direct" in V3 while it was netted in "Indirect" in V2)? Basically, does "Direct" no longer represent the "Change in Final Demand"; it truly represents true "Direct" in I/O methodology? I also enetered $6.5m in payroll (wages and benefits---should I only have entered a pure wage figure?). So I should expect a large "Induced" effect, which I received; does this seem realistic? thanks sooooo much Impact Summary VB IMPLAN Model 1.impdb Copyright 2013 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. ImpactType Employment LaborIncome Total ValueAdded Output Direct Effect 21.4 871,232.0 1,575,921.8 2,421,578.9 Indirect Effect 4.6 185,627.9 361,325.1 600,376.4 Induced Effect 43.7 1,694,687.1 3,380,208.3 5,213,024.8 Total Effect 69.6 2,751,547.1 5,317,455.3 8,234,980.1
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Paul, Yes the difference that you are seeing between your Sum of Event Values and the Direct Output is likely due simply to the reduction of the Industry Sales value as a result of Margins and LPP. In addition to this, you will want to ensure that your Event Year is the same as your Dollar Year for View in the results when you view them, since V3 also allows you to inflate/deflate results on the fly. You can also see this change in the Margin edit screen we discussed in an earlier post. The large Induced affect is directly attributable to your entered Labor Income value. We apologize because not many of us are still familiar with Version 2.0 because it has been out of its support life for a number of years now but the calculations behind the Labor Income impacts between V2 and V3 have changed. The dollar value you will want to enter into Employment Compensation and/or Proprietor Income should be a loaded payroll value as described here: https://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_glossary&id=185&Itemid=57. If that is the value you entered, then that is fine. The Labor Income per Worker here is about $73.6K, which may be a little high, but if you are comfortable with that number you can certainly use it. In fact if anything looks anomalous, it is the size of the Indirect...and then the resulting study Multiplier of 3.4. Based on re-reading your posts, I'm wondering if the issue is that the 'true direct' impact, or the initial Output, Employment, Labor Income and Value Added are not accounted for here? Since you ran this as an Industry Change Activity, rather than a spending pattern, the 'Direct Effects' reported will be the first-round of indirect expenditures (you can verify this by going to the Detail Results> View By: Output. I'm assuming you will see all your entered Sectors listed under the Direct column. To then get the 'true total' impact you will want to sum the rows of you results for Direct and Indirect, and add in the total Output, Employment, Labor Income and Value Added associated to the aquarium itself. Once you've done this, we suspect the results will be more balanced looking and the study Multiplier will come down to a more 'expected' value.
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    pharris
    Hi, wow...thanks soooo much...I need to digest this and may need to follow up (sorry I am so needy)...I a bit jammed today, but I would like to complete this soon (and that means I wont have to pester you again :)...sincerely appreciate all your time, expertise, and patience.
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