I am running the impacts of $7.25 billion worth of expenditures on the California economy using the 2011 state plus package. A significant portion of these expenditures are in retail and the Total Output Effect was estimated to be $10.3 billion. After running some county multi-region impacts and receiving an overflow error I called your support team and they updated the Journey to Work data and the Trade Flow data, which eliminated the overflow error. However, when I copy the activities into models generated with this new data the impacts have declined. Running the $7.25 billion worth of expenditures state-wide on California now generates $9.6 billion in impacts. Why have the journey to work and trade flow updates resulted in this $700 million decline($9.6b vs. $10.3b)? My quick review of the two models' overviews, balance sheets, SAMs, and I/O Accounts indicates that they are identical. I have also verified that margins, event year, local purchase percentages, etc. are identical across the two models. Indirect Effects are identical between the two models. Direct Output effects are identical, but Direct Employment/Labor Income/Value Added effects differ between the two models and all the Induced Effects differ between the models. What was the problem with the initial Journey to Work and Trade Flow data? Does it make sense these corrections would have resulted in these declines in impacts or are further updates needed?
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