In reading IMPLAN-based studies of tourism, often the consumers are divided up into two groups: locals, and tourists coming in from outside. When assessing the impacts of spending by locals, the assumption often seems to be made that this is a net addition to total spending within the target area. I would think, however, that would yield an overestimate of the target area impact, because locals are likely not spending/spending less on other things. If we knew what these other things were, I should think there would be a reverse multiplier effect, which in principle could be modeled, and subtracted out. Am I thinking about this the right way? And if so, is there any way in IMPLAN that I can compensate for this substitution effect? And if not, what would you suggest?
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