We prepared a draft of an analysis for Sector 11 when 2009 was the latest data available. The assumption was that the industry sales would be roughly the same (in constant dollars) each year for the foreseeable future. We reported the output, value added, and employment figures. It is time to update the analysis. The industry sales figure has been adjusted slightly but basically it is the same model. We decided to run the analysis using 2012 data to better capture the current situation. Obviously, we expected the results to be somewhat different. The reason to buy new data is because things change. I was, though, surprised by the magnitude of the change in employment figures. The data are for Mesa County, Colorado Here are the employment multipliers. Year Direct Indirect Induced Total Type1 TypeSAM 2009 6.194 - 3.765 -- 0.690 - 10.649 - 1.608 - 1.719 2012 13.629 - 2.573 - 0.943 - 17.145 - 1.888 - 1.258 The obvious factor is that you get more than twice as many direct jobs per million dollars in 2012. The Type SAM multiplier is smaller but is working on a much larger number. Running $1,000,000 with an event year of 2009 for each model gives the following in terms of employment. 2009 Model:10.6 2012 Model:23.3 Is it possible to look at the data underlying the direct employment multipliers to identify a change in the county's economy that would explain the difference between the two data years? We didn't make a big deal out of the employment numbers because they are confusing to interpret, but they were reported in tables in the draft. It would be nice to have an explanation to offer for why the figures are so different. I have been toying with a couple of possibilities but would like to hear if you can shed any light on this for me. Thanks for your time.
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