Modelling a population exodus

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John Phelan

• January 23, 2018 21:29

Hello. 

 

I'm trying to model the impact of a departure of taxpayers from Minnesota for 2016. There are 515 of them with an average taxable income of $677,000 annually (a total loss of taxable income of $348,660,958).

 

Am I correct in modelling this as a a decline in household income for households earning over $200k of that amount? I don't think I am. Any advice?

Thanks

John 

 

 

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  Lynette Hatton

  • January 29, 2018 21:55

  Hello,

  Based on that description, a household income change is appropriate. Essentially, what is being estimated is the change to the regional economy stemming from the loss of local household spending (which is derived from local income).

   

  Note: A household income change activity doesn't report the lost tax revenue from the departing residents. There is a method to estimate this if such is desired.

   

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