Modeling Impact of Food Recall

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    Candi Clouse

    Hi there!  

    There are a few ways to model the change in sales. You could model a decrease in romaine sales through an Industry Output Event, but given that you know the actual commodity, it would be better to model it through a Commodity Event. Retail sales might not capture the entire value chain (farmer > transportation > wholesale > retail).

    The interesting thing to consider here, however, is that these lower sales would likely be offset by sales in other varieties of lettuce or produce. I would suggest that you consider modeling the losses to the farmers specifically by estimating prices for the lost shipments.

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